2006 Draft Look: Part 1

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As we near the end of the regular season, let's take a look at our 2006 draft again and identify some great picks, some steals, some bad picks, and some terrible picks. In order of the draft #1-12...

Jon took Carmelo with his third pick and it can be argued that Melo is now a solid second round selection. Of course, would you rather have some of the picks post-Melo -- Josh Smith, Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal, Joe Johnson, Andre Igoudala, Rashard Lewis or Lamar Odom? The pick of Jameer Nelson in the fourth hurt pretty bad as Jameer is returning none of the value expected of him. The Funk had no picks that can now be considered steals.

Eric-A exhibited savvy draft day foresight, stealing a resurrected Amare Stoudemire in Rd2 and getting value on the dollar for Zach Randolph in Rd6. Raja Bell (7), Jarrett Jack (10) and Andrea Bargnani (11) will all turn out to be good picks, but hardly true steals. A diminished Ben Wallace in Rd4 now looks a bit early.

The other Eric, Eric-L, made a fantastic grab of up-and-comer Andre Igoudala in Rd4 and that turned out to be an amazing pick -- along with Josh Howard in Rd7. He also nabbed Leandro Barbosa in Rd9 and Al Jefferson in Rd12. The mistakes? Maggette in Rd 6 or maybe Darko in Rd8. Lots of hits for a very few misses however.

Jose took the risk on Pau Gasol in Rd6 and got back second round value pretty quickly. Which is good because their actual second round pick, Andrei Kirilenko has been the biggest bust so far this season. Acquiring the streak shooting Ben Gordon in Rd7 seems to be quite a coup too.

Oliver unearthed two of the biggest late round gems -- Kevin Martin (Rd10) and Monta Ellis (Rd14). In addition, they got Caron Butler's career year at Rd5. The only semi-miss? Rasheed Wallace in Rd4, which isn't even too bad considering what Rasheed had -- and might be still be -- capable of.

Evan got a block and rebounding machine in Rd7, Emeka Okafor, for cheap; which came right after his now ugly looking selection of Charlie Villanueva in Rd6. The best pick might have been committing to Josh Smith in Rd3 however, as Josh is now putting up outstanding, ridiculous, numbers. Then again, maybe it's mighty Mo Williams in the 9th that deserves best pick honors.

DJ

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"Dennis Johnson, the star NBA guard who was part of three championships and teamed with Larry Bird on one of the great postseason plays, died Thursday after collapsing at the end of his developmental team's practice. He was 52."

Bill Simmons on DJ
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Anything You Can Do, I Can Do Better

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It's impossible to get an accurate picture of our last spotlighted team, Buffy. Stats don't reflect the depth and skill of this roster; mainly because they've have major parts missing most of the season. Even with all those injuries, Buffy stands at a strong 9-6 (good for third in the West) and had a four game winning streak earlier in the season.

Injuries are part of the game but this is ridiculous. Chris Paul, Rashard Lewis, JR Smith, Luke Walton, the recently traded Joe Johnson, and Shaquille O'Neal have all missed significant time. Baron Davis and Antawn Jamison are slated to miss a few weeks each -- as is JR Smith again. We'll take a look at Buffy's projected best lineup and how that might stack up.

PTS, REB, AST: Buffy, firing on all cylinders, is a powerhouse scoring team. They're ranked 4th in PTS on the season but the potential is there for a much higher ranking. While there are no scoring champs on this roster, seven guys can consistently put up around 20 ppg (Paul, Duncan, Baron, Rashard, Jamison, Curry, Crawford). That makes for a lot of buckets. We're thinking Buffy can compete with anyone in PTS anyway, simply because they are so explosive and anyone is capable of blowing up for a big week.

The trade for Tim Duncan (10.8 REB) inserts a stud rebounder into the lineup. While there are a handful of pretty good rebounders on the squad -- Curry, Jamison, Lewis, Webber, Collision, and presumably, Shaq, can all get at least 7 REB a game -- Buffy isn't an overwhelming REB force. Yet. Ranked only 8th on the season, they can quickly rise in the rankings if everyone gets on board. Not to mention, Baron and CP3 are both great rebounding point guards. We forsee a top 3 REB ranking if everyone is healthy and in the lineup.

The passing burden falls squarely on the brittle bodies of Baron and Chris Paul. Both average about 8.7 AST a game and that incredible output would allow them to carry the rest of the team. How far though? The next best AST guy on the team is either Jamal Crawford or Luke Walton -- one is a shooter, the other is limited by Kobe and Lamar. While there's a steep drop-off after the two stud point guards, Buffy should be at least middle of the pack in AST -- they're ranked 8th for now.

STL, BLK, 3PT: You're gonna hear this a lot: Baron and Paul carry the team -- this time in STL. Both are at about 2.0 STL per game and those are league leading numbers. Most of the other guards and forwards average about 1.0 STL a game and that should be enough to make Buffy slightly above average in the STL department -- ranked 5th on the season.

Buffy is a bonafide dominant three point shooting team. They're only ranked 3rd on the season, but they've rarely had their full complement of shooters on the floor. JR Smith (2.75), Rashard Lewis (2.2), and Antawn Jamison (2.2) lead the way but Crawford, Davis, Dunleavy, and Mobley aren't too shabby either. If those seven all play at the same time, the 3PT numbers can get astronomical.

The only weakness Buffy has displayed so far is a lack of BLK. They're ranked 10th in the league, and only protect the rim better than the Sour Snails and Funk Coalition -- who barely reject anything except wins. Tim Duncan's 2.3 BLK will help here but one man can't carry a whole team. The other seven-footers on this team, Shaq and Eddy Curry, are hardly good at blocking anything except the buffet line.

FG%, FT%, TO: For a team with so many shooters, this is a fine FG% team. Eddy Curry shoots 58.1% and Tim Duncan will boost that with his 52.7%. If Shaq ever shoots enough to make a difference, his 52.2% is pretty par for the course. Even Baron Davis is at a respectable -- for him -- 42.6%. The only truly terrible shooter here is Jamal Crawford (40.2%), who has no conscience, but in a good way. Buffy is ranked 5th on the season in FG% -- soon to rise -- and that's pretty impressive considering the PTS and 3PT output they are capable of.

The flip side of the shiny coin is that FT% is shot to hell -- ranked 10th and that's before Timmy and Shaq were in the lineup. Duncan and Shaq's free throw woes are well documented. Curry and Webber don't help matters with their sub-70 FT% either. If Roger decides to take his team and go small, he could do quite well in FT% however -- since all of his non-bigs are excellent free throw shooters, highlighted by Rashard Lewis' 90.6%.

Buffy is ranked 9th in TO for the season, recently rising as high as 5th for the second half. Have they gotten better at protecting the ball? Unlikely. It's more a case of Baron and Paul being injured and off the floor. The real concern here is that Eddy Curry, Tim Duncan, and Jamal Crawford all average about 3.0 TO each, the same as the two point guards but without the high return in AST. Still, Buffy should be middle of the pack in turnovers as just about everyone either shoots it immediately, or just puts it in the bucket.

Bench: Buffy is in the enviable position of being able to play the matchups. They could go big with Shaq, Curry, Webber and Collison, or go small and insert JR Smith, Dunleavy, Mobley, and Walton. They can play for REB, for either of the two percentages, for 3PT, and not lose a whole lot in the PTS and AST department. They are a true 9-category team. Fun times eh? The only guy who will probably remain firmly planted on the bench is Hakim Warrick, who has had his moments but is too streaky to play often. Shaq may never see the light of day either, as Roger drafted him with the intention of punishing him for ever leaving the Lakers. Otherwise, there's not a defined bench here as much as a deep squad to play matchups week to week. Pundits project that the bench will usually consist of Shaq, Warrick, Mobley, Collison (who is playing like a monster recently), and Walton. Unless one of them gets the hot hand and can displace Webber, JR Smith, or Dunleavy.
Cure: There's nothing wrong with this team; in fact, there's a lot of right with it. They just need to remain healthy. The key cog, Baron Davis (who is irreplaceable as the second anchor for AST and STL) seems to drive this team's success. If he plays, Buffy wins.

Roger could move some spare pieces for another BLK guy in the mold of Darko Milicic or something like that, but for the most part, what else does this team need? Maybe another point guard to back up Baron and Paul? A witch doctor for Baron's knees? That's about it. This is the playoff dark horse right here.

Recap: Week 16

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Inter-Conference Games
6-3, Phanatics vs Fat Jubas
5-4, Funk Coalition vs Sour Snails
6-3, Buffy vs Chunky Monkeys
6-3, Human Amoebas vs MoRRie's Pogiboys
6-3, Squirtle Squad vs Pooh Bears
5-4, Poobic Heirs vs Rhythm Drive

Conference Games
none

With a short week and no players logging more than 2 games, upsets were bound to happen. The East took care of business, but the West had two (nearly three) big upsets. We'll take an abridged look at an an abridged week.

6-3, Phanatics vs Fat Jubas
The Phanatics put up a not too shabby 335 PTS in only 20 games and took the conference leading Jubas to the mat with a swift power slam. Nene dropped in 42 PTS on 68.0 FG% and the Phanatics used David West's 20 REB to clear the Jubas on the boards (by 5). Andre Iguodala had career high 13 AST in one game which was eyebrow raising and impressive -- but ultimately futile.

5-4, Funk Coalition vs Sour Snails
The Funk used their two extra GP to sneak out a win that should have been the Snails. Heading into the waning moments of Thursday night, the Snails were up 6-2 and cruising to a third straight win. But one magical BLK by Smush Parker, a few REB, and a 18-22 FT night for Lebron (versus 3-10 for the Snail's Larry Hughes) and the Coalition escaped with a much needed victory.

6-3, Buffy vs Chunky Monkeys
Another West upset special this week as Buffy takes out the suddenly vulnerable Monkeys. Buffy squeaked by the Monkeys in PTS (by 9), helped no doubt by Cuttino Mobley's 48 PTS on 54.5 FG%. They almost had the Monkeys in AST too (losing by only 4), to make it even more of a lopsided victory. When is Gilbert Arenas going to pull out of his shooting slump (30.8 FG% this week)?

6-3, Human Amoebas vs MoRRie's Pogiboys
We thought the Pogiboys might sneak one out this week to avoid the ignominious honor of owning the longest consecutive losing streak -- which they now own, at 12 losses -- since the Amoebas had Jason Kidd ailing. But Dirk Diggler dominated with averages of 32 PTS, 9.5 REB, 4.5 AST, and 2 3PT. The Pogis were unable to capitalize as Elton Brand sat out this week and Gerald Wallace's one game line of 32 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST, and 2 BLK/3PT on great percentages wasn't quite enough for a miracle. Make the pain stop!

5-4, Poobic Heirs vs Rhythm Drive
The Drive need to keep winning to keep the Toilet Bowl hounds at bay. Playing an astonishing 6 games down in a short week won't help matters. Of course, they still almost won despite Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Brad Miller, and Mickael Pietrus contributing nothing into the starting lineup. The Poobic Heirs got nice numbers from Caron Butler (16 PTS, 8 AST, 5 STL in one game) and Monta Ellis (18.5 PTS, 4 AST, 2.5 STL) for the win. Will Yao make it back in time for the playoffs? Do the streaking Heirs -- six wins and counting -- even need him?

6-3, Squirtle Squad vs Pooh Bears
Despite being 4 GP down, the Squad took care of business, edging the Pooh Bears in AST (by 1) and STL (by 2) to take the win. They can thank Deron Williams and his outstanding 2-game week of 40 PTS, 21 AST, 3 STL and 2 3PT on 56.7% shooting for leading the way in a time when true All-Stars step up -- even if they don't go to Vegas. With only five weeks left in the regular season, the Bears are two games behind Rhythm Drive for that last playoff spot. Can they make it?

F(L)unked Out?

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The Funk are choosing to ride the thin red line of success. Lately, that has meant losing. Whether or not that's been due to injuries and sub-par performances or the design of the team is hard to tell. Let's take a look. Due to small ball lineup, we'll be looking at the Funk with only five categories in mind, since REB-BLK-FG%-TO are purposely a wash and the Funk is ranked either last or next-to-last in all four of those categories.

PTS, AST: In the beginning of the season, the Funk were outscoring teams at will. Three of the top ten point producers in the NBA will do that for you. Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Michael Redd all average over 27 ppg and Carmelo is leading the league at nearly 31 ppg. Supplemented by Mehmet Okur, Kyle Korver, and the occasional outburst from Sam Cassell, the Funk were (and are overall) ranked #1 in PTS. The problem has been that Anthony and Redd has barely shared court time since late 2006. In the last five weeks, the Funk are only a middling 6th in PTS. Lebron's in a scoring slump and there seems to be no solid point producer behind the big three. The best PTS guy left? Earl Boykins at 18 ppg. Boykins has been great filling in for Melo and Redd but he won't keep scoring at that clip when Redd returns. The rest of the team is made up of decent scoreres, but nobody pushes past 14 or 15 ppg. Can the Funk return to PTS dominance once Redd returns?

Winning AST has never been a problem for this team. Ranked number one in this category and dominating in recent weeks. The trade for Raymond Felton has locked up this category and between the plethora of point guards on this team and Felton (7.4), TJ Ford's (7.8), and Lebron's (6.0) high assist averages, the Funk can, and will, out pass anyone. Bit of an overkill actually as the Funk are capable of doubling up opponents in AST most weeks.

STL, 3PT: The story is the same from behind the arc. The Funk have dominated from the three point line all season long. It's been a team effort, paced by Rafer Alston's 2.2 3PT a game. Outside of TJ Ford and Carmelo Anthony, everyone on this team puts in at least one three-pointer per game. The trade of Mehmet Okur (1.5), Kyle Korver (1.7), and Matt Barnes (2.0) significantly reduced the number of 3PT this team could put up but they are still strong for the forseeable future.

Steals have been a problem for the Funk though. Even from the get-go, this team was weak in STL, ranking only 6th on the season. This team needs a super STL stud to make sure that they're capable of winning this category every week. Theyr'e getting better recently -- ranked 4th for the second half -- behind Felton and Smush Parker's 3.0 STL per game, but they're not great in this category. They need to be. Some of the other teams in the league (The Poobic Heirs, Fat Jubas, Pooh Bears) have a much better STLs team.

FT%: Of late, this category has been horrific for the Funk. Lebron James, step right up. The sheer number of free throws Lebron takes can doom this team when his misses pile up. He's at 68.1% on the season. Nobody else is a terrible free throw shooter but outside of Carmelo, Redd, and Randy Foye, nobody is over 80% either. Scratch that, current starters Smush Parker and Steve Blake are 65% free throw shooters but both are fine FT shooters career-wise. All this translates to 4th in FT% on the season and 6th for the second half. This is the number one area of concern for the Funk heading into the playoffs.

Bench: Jon's been a busy bee on the waiver wire (league leading 36 moves) and located a few timely pieces such as Earl Boykins, Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, and Smush Parker. They're going to have to keep digging though, since this team is in flux and sorely in need of serviceable starters.

The current bench is some mixture of Adam Morrison, Gerald Green, Steve Blake, Earl Boykins, Randy Foye, Jose Calderon, and Jorge Garbajosa. Everyone's had their moments but for the most part, this is an injury fill-in bench. Morrison has been so-so in his rookie season, Green is unlikely to see so many shots with Paul Pierce back, and Blake's numbers will take a hit when Iverson returns. Who knows what happens to Boykins once Redd starts playing, but he probably won't be consistently starter worthy. Calderon holds value only as long as TJ Ford is hurt; which he isn't right now. Garbajosa was brought on board for his STL -- which are at a surprising 1.2 average -- but his other numbers are less than gasp worthy.

The bad news is that two or three of these guys will be starters each week for the Funk. The new starting role ceded to Randy Foye could set him up for a strong second half, but nobody knows if he'll remain the starter for long. After trading 5-for-2 (Okur, Korver, Dunleavy, Cassell, Barnes for Felton and Morrison) and losing valuable role players, this team is hurting for depth.
Cure: It's not all doom and gloom for the Funk however. Carmelo is having a breakout year and proving that he's not just a scoring machine. He contributes 6 REB, 4.4 AST, and 1.2 STL a game and has shown the ability to post triple-doubles in Denver's fast paced offense. Rafer Alston is the hidden star for this team since he contributes 13 PTS, 5.3 AST, 1.7 STL, and 2.2 3PT -- his 36.9% shooting doesn't hurt Funk at all. The biggest disappointment? Jameer Nelson, who contributes 13.3 PTS, 4.2 AST, and barely 1 STL/3PT. Not bad for a late round pick but he was taken in the fourth, ahead of other point guards such as Tony Parker, Deron Williams and Baron Davis. Ouch.

Two big problems right now; Lebron's FT% and the number of STL this team can pull out against top competition. The problem is that there's not a lot of tradable assets left -- is it time to consider moving one of the Big Three? There's been some discrete shopping around of Lebron but the fan base is wary of something like that since Lebron is in an admittedly down year and he should rebound after the All-Star break, or at least next year. Plus, it's hard to replace what Lebron does, no matter how bad he's doing. Do you trade the overall number one pick at the lowest statistical point in his career? Tough call.

This team does need to bring in something to buttress FT%, STL, and maybe PTS or 3PT. With only five categories that this team can compete in, they need to dominate all five every week to win. Perhaps this is the wrong way to play since many of Funk's early season success came from stealing FG% once in awhile with Mehmet Okur on-board. That won't be happening anymore. So, what now? Stay the course or diversify? Can a team this unbalanced succeed? Or will they collapse behind weekly losses in STL and/or FT%? Something is wrong about this team but we can't quite put our finger on it...